COVID- 19

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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:00 pm:

Yes Pfizer said sometime ago that there would be a dip in supply for a period in March. But maybe the impending arrival of Moderna will be the predicted rise then?

It would help if some other vaccines were approved by the regulators.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:07 pm:

The fall off in vaccination numbers was always likely to happen and the Govt's first benchmark was always going to be the big target although they will be under some pressure to hit each stage target now they have set them.

Having said this, the most important thing to remember is that very few people have been fully vaccinated. This is where the figures don't look as impressive and somewhat average compared to other countries .

There is insufficient data to support any firm efficacy of the OAZ vaccine after the first jab. Hancock confirmed yesterday that the Pfizer vaccine had an efficacy of 70 % effectiveness against likely hospitalisation ...... but hang on Mr. Hancock ; you failed to say that this drops to only 57 % after one jab of the vaccine in those over 80 !.

As for the OAZ vaccine there is no accepted World data on the efficacy after the first jab in any age group.

The best that Mr Hancock could say was that it offered a " good level" of protection. Yes; well that is encouraging and perhaps his words for most people are reassuring ?. What exactly is a " good " level of protection after one jab ?. 40 % ? 50 % ? 60 % ? 70 %? and moreover, what is a good level of protection for those in the most vulnerable groups' particularly those aged over 80 ?.

We await the data once it has finally got some scientific credibility.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:14 pm:

The above is one reason why those of you wanting everything to rush back open and people to be getting back to normal is way way too early !.

With a partially vaccinated population and with a significant % of those vaccinated only having one of the OAZ jabs with no verified data on one jab efficacy, the last thing that we need is another new variant or indeed any variant suddenly spreading.

The vaccination programme may have got off to a great start but this is a sprint over 400 metres with three baton changes and not a 100 m sprint without any .

Drop the baton and we've lost the race.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:22 pm:

Stop bringing facts in to it.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:37 pm:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... accination

RTS2 I thought I would post the link to where you are getting your data from. Yes, you are quite correct it is 57% effecency rate (after 2 weeks). It rises to 75% though after 4 weeks and then begins to platau. It has always been known that it takes 4 weeks to get the best protection from a single dose. The booster jab then takes it to 85% in over 80s. That is why we are following a 5 week break between levels. Scotland is taking a 3 week approach, which again will kill hundreds because the first jab won't be at its peak protection.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 17:51 pm:

and of course Tigerchef , the 4 weeks passes and then as you say it plateaus ; but this relates to the Pfizer vaccine in terms of verified scientific data not OAZ from my understanding. Lets also remember that Pfizer recommend a time gap between vaccinations .

The UK approach however is that 12 week gap is an optimum point strategy that also facilitates more first jab emphasis in terms of numbers being achieved.

The 12 week efficacy more pertinently related to the OAZ vaccine and in this case it has not been at variance to the manufacturers recommendations..

The problem with OAZ is the lack of first jab efficacy data, and that is wherein the 12 week lag might in fact prove to be the weak link.

I am happy to accept the scientific evidence of the 12 week gap between first and second jab with OAZ in terms of it's overall optimisation and effectiveness in preventing hospitalisation ; but without up- to- date World data on the OAZ efficacy rates after the first jab (moreover in relation to the most vulnerable groups) then I think any exit strategy from lockdown must remain very cautious, as we simply don't have World- data yet to indicate the % of efficacy in the most vulnerable after one jab.

This may ( in relation to the OAZ vaccine ) therefore not entirely fit as well into the 5 week stepping stone model ; although I accept the principle of that as being a very good one.

Not following the recommended time gap between the first and second jab with Pfizer might also prove to be a weak point; but we have to trust the decision of British medical advice on this whatever the manufacturers 3 week gap recommendation is based on .

I get the caveat that Pfizer want to cover their @@s -totally ; but I would have preferred the Govt's advisors to have also recommended following it .

British Medical Journal.....

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n162


The Scottish 3 week stepping stone is ( as you say ) potentially perilous.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 18:07 pm:

Well the data coming out Scotland showed that the Oxford vaccine was better than Pfizer in preventing hospitalisations after 4 weeks.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n523

In fact, Sarah Gilbert who developed the vaccine said on Andrew Marr that there really would be no concern if they waited longer than 12 weeks for the second dose.

Bottom line, all the evidence thus far suggests that vaccines are far better than anticipated after 1 dose.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 18:27 pm:

Stecks the data on OAZ has not been verified on a World-basis to gauge any consistency. Also we are not discussing whether the OAZ v Phizer is more effective in a 12 week period viz a viz % efficacy against hospitalisation in the most vulnerable.

That is a somewhat different point.

We simply don't have the data yet to establish any claims regarding this on any significant scale. It may indeed prove to be more effective over that period than Pfizer; but only the final data will tell us and at this point we don't have it.

That is wherein lays the reason for the Governments caution. We will most likely have an increasing % of dependence on the OAZ vaccine as the days go by. The fact remains that Pfizer as recommending a 3 week gap and it may well be that this vaccine peaks after that period and then declines in effectiveness V Pfizer during the following 9 weeks.

The 12 week gap for Pfizer might plateau or fall off from 75 % in generic terms and 57 % after 3 weeks in the most vulnerable ; but we don't know the efficacy in the most vulnerable at any stage during the first 12 weeks of OAZ.

Yes it may prove to be higher than Phizer and the other vaccines ( let's not forget these ) BUT at the moment we don't have this data and until we do we must remain extremely cautious.

Obviously when the data is available it could be a game changer IF it's proved to give an equal or even higher efficacy during the 12 week window between jabs. In this case then restrictions could potentially be reviewed, although we must keep sight of those most vulnerable who have had Pfizer jab 1 only over the next two to three months. They may require more protection than others during the first two 5 week stepping stones as a minimum ; or at least until they have received their second jab.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 19:23 pm:

It's been reported that the Philippines will let thousands of its healthcare workers, mostly nurses, take up jobs in Britain if the UK agree to donate much-needed coronavirus vaccines. This is good news for the UK but has a tinge of sadness too about it and demonstrates how vaccines could almost be used as a kind of currency by wealthier nations.

It seems almost wrong in some ways , even though we need them. I guess those who get to come might see it as an opportunity; so we perhaps have to be less cynical and just see the positives ?. Nurses for Vaccines doesn't somehow seem right though; IF this is true. I am seeing this from the Phillipnes Govt. angle not just from the UK Govt's position.

In a perfect World we would be sending surplus vaccines there anyway in numbers and health care professionals there would be wanting to come to the UK by choice with the right incentives being given to them to settle here. I must say they often are fantastic nurses and seemingly they always try and smile.
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Re: COVID- 19

23 Feb 2021 20:10 pm:

I'm not sure what you are referring to by 'verified on a world basis'? Who would do that?

Clearly the first pieces of research will come from the countries that are furthest ahead and who have the most people vaccinated. So that's most likely to be the UK and countries like Israel.

The article you linked was over a month out of date - in the current climate, that's a lifetime.

The article I posted was from Monday. I can assure you countries all around the world will be looking at that piece of research. Including the WHO.

You shared some concerns about the dosing strategy of the UK back in Dec/Jan. It feels like you are looking for something to back up those concerns for a 'I told you so' type post. I'm sure that isn't the case - and hope so too.
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