O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite )

Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

SirHenry 17 Dec 2019 09:04 am said..

I think it makes minimal difference to the negotiation process, that will run it's course based upon the negotiating position of the UK.

It's more for public consumption at home. Ooh isn't Boris being tough with the nasty EU. In reality, if we get to the knife edge and it has all gone Pete Tong for the UK he can bring a new Bill into place that overturns the existing one. With a whopping majority parliament was never going to overturn any trade deal he puts to Parliament so it's all just showboating.

Markets not impressed it would seem ...
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Lewi7 17 Dec 2019 14:21 pm said..

The Markets
- all rose on the exit poll last Thursday at 10.01pm, £ on the Forex; Bonds & stocks etc.
- they were always going to re-adjust, but overall virtually all market indices are in positive.

Political position
- before the election was called both the UK & EU agreed terms in principle, the deal that Boris took 3 months to agree, with an accompanying Political Declaration, so the pathway to a deal is in place
- With the Gov legislating against any transition period extension in Dec 2020 it focuses the mind for both parties to agree a deal. If no deal is agreed then we move to WTO terms 100%. This is more of a negotiating position, but with Germany in recession; the Euro & Eurozone struggling the incentive to agree a deal is very much in place.
- It's far more than show boating, it's the Gov & Boris using his majority to ensure the UK secures a suitable deal.

Confidence
- the analysis I have seen, albeit in the immediate aftermath of the election result suggests that confidence is returning, where in the 12 months leading up to the election it was declining, not to Brexit itself, but to the ongoing stalemate in Parliament.
- we'll have to wait & see how this develops, but one thing the markets like is certainty, which we have an element of compared to pre election.

Economics
- the EU overall sells more to the UK, than the UK buys from the EU - the balance of trade is & has been increasing.
- the EU Commission want to make it as difficult as pos for the UK, as you might expect, however the business communities now just want to agree trade terms and continue to access the UK market.
- the UK is the biggest market for German cars; French wine; Spanish tomatoes; Italian olive oil etc.
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Gloucester Mute 17 Dec 2019 14:30 pm said..

JamesK wrote:
robs1 wrote:It takes two to agree a deal


That’s what I believed during the referendum campaign but I was told I was part of project fear. The Tories have said they’ll be a deal by the end of next year. They didn’t spell out that this is conditional on the EU offering us exactly what we want. If the Tories don’t deliver they have failed. You seem to be starting to line up an excuse already. I’m guessing you don’t have much confidence.


James - you've obviously decided to give your support for the one cause NOT !! As I have said I was a very keen Remainer and still wish that we had remained. The majority decided they wanted to Leave so as a good democrat I support the majority view.

Not especially keen on Boris and his moral compass BUT when comparing him to Corbyn I, seemingly like millions of our fellow countrymen, think him a better option + I was never massively entranced by Corbyn's Peter Pan economics.
Nothing wrong with free speech or having an opinion - as long as it matches mine !!
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Nuts 17 Dec 2019 15:23 pm said..

Lewi7 wrote:Economics
- the EU overall sells more to the UK, than the UK buys from the EU - the balance of trade is & has been increasing.


Que?

Or are you just checking we are paying attention :D
Surely EU sales and UK purchases are the same?
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Lewi7 17 Dec 2019 16:08 pm said..

Sorry, there is a trade balance - the EU sells more to the UK than the UK buys from the EU - the gap is circa £60 billion & growing.

I worded my earlier post poorly,
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

SirHenry 17 Dec 2019 16:28 pm said..

Political position
- before the election was called both the UK & EU agreed terms in principle, the deal that Boris took 3 months to agree, with an accompanying Political Declaration, so the pathway to a deal is in place
- With the Gov legislating against any transition period extension in Dec 2020 it focuses the mind for both parties to agree a deal. If no deal is agreed then we move to WTO terms 100%. This is more of a negotiating position, but with Germany in recession; the Euro & Eurozone struggling the incentive to agree a deal is very much in place.
- It's far more than show boating, it's the Gov & Boris using his majority to ensure the UK secures a suitable deal.


I would respectfully disagree, as you say the terms in Principle have been agreed and the date has been set. It is an oft repeated narrative that the EU have been obstructing Brexit and dragging their feet. From what I have seen they have been very clear in their red lines and have responded in remarkable quick time (given that 27 countries need to agree) on the 2 occasions the UK has actually settled on a coherent proposal.

The EU would be working to this timeline regardless of any UK legislation. They are fully aware of the risks of "No Deal" .
They have had long enough to work out what they will compromise on and what they won't, so it won't make a jot of difference to their negotiation team.

It's not relevant as "negotiating position" - Extension was at the behest of the EU and had to be requested by June anyway. Given he has the numbers to reverse that legislation should he wish and make the request then it really is just showboating for internal consumption to make him look "tough". All he had to do was say he had no intention to request an extension, that would have exactly the same effect.
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Sheddy Mcshedface 17 Dec 2019 16:35 pm said..

SirHenry wrote:
Political position
- before the election was called both the UK & EU agreed terms in principle, the deal that Boris took 3 months to agree, with an accompanying Political Declaration, so the pathway to a deal is in place
- With the Gov legislating against any transition period extension in Dec 2020 it focuses the mind for both parties to agree a deal. If no deal is agreed then we move to WTO terms 100%. This is more of a negotiating position, but with Germany in recession; the Euro & Eurozone struggling the incentive to agree a deal is very much in place.
- It's far more than show boating, it's the Gov & Boris using his majority to ensure the UK secures a suitable deal.


I would respectfully disagree, as you say the terms in Principle have been agreed and the date has been set. It is an oft repeated narrative that the EU have been obstructing Brexit and dragging their feet. From what I have seen they have been very clear in their red lines and have responded in remarkable quick time (given that 27 countries need to agree) on the 2 occasions the UK has actually settled on a coherent proposal.

The EU would be working to this timeline regardless of any UK legislation. They are fully aware of the risks of "No Deal" .
They have had long enough to work out what they will compromise on and what they won't, so it won't make a jot of difference to their negotiation team.

It's not relevant as "negotiating position" - Extension was at the behest of the EU and had to be requested by June anyway. Given he has the numbers to reverse that legislation should he wish and make the request then it really is just showboating for internal consumption to make him look "tough". All he had to do was say he had no intention to request an extension, that would have exactly the same effect.


Problem is Boris said he would rather die in a ditch than extend Brexit before so, as he ostensibly alive and not dwelling in any ravines, it goes to show that what Boris says and what Boris does are two different things!

My guess is he will be forced into a reversal of this position as well and everyone will just pretend he never said anything about not extending the transition period!
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

SirHenry 17 Dec 2019 17:09 pm said..

As long as it's in both parties interests. He is trying to make it sound like he holds all the cards whereas we already know that is bluff and bluster for public consumption. It changes nothing about the reality of the process.
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Lewi7 17 Dec 2019 17:52 pm said..

Sorry, Boris does hold the cards now, all of them too.

The EU, without a deadline to agree a deal want a 2 or 3 year transition period. With the potential of a no deal & deadline that accompanies it they are compelled to act faster than they would have liked. Making is illegal for a UK Gov to extend the transition period forces the issue. We'll either have a negotiated deal or we leave on WTO terms in Dec 2020. Faced with this choice which would the EU prefer ?

In March 2017, the EU offered TMay a deal, which she rejected - she had to really as there was no way it would pass through the House given it's MP at that time - it's all change now. But, your point about the EU being willing is partially true - don't forget they through in the Irish border issue, using Varadkar in the process.
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Re: O / T: The Politics Show. ( Keep it polite ).

Lewi7 17 Dec 2019 18:02 pm said..

If interested of course, worth having a look here: https://www.gov.uk/brexit
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